Search This Blog

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Operation Inconceivable: Attacking the Soviet Union [Final]

            The Cold War between the United States and its NATO counterparts against the Soviet Union and its allies of the Eastern Bloc was one huge battle of ideals. The West with its ideals of democracy and liberty fought against the East with its ideals of state communism and welfare. Yet despite the strong antagonism, the two sides never had a full out war with each other. The idea floating about was that outright war with nuclear arsenals would lead to the destruction of both parties. A closer look into this concept illustrates the uninspired imagination of its adherents. Thermonuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union would not lead to the imminent destruction of both. Rather American strategists envisioned a superior US world position in the aftermath of a bloody war. The only thing lacking was the moral and public support for a confrontation with the Soviet Union. Therefore, a legitimate justification for war was to come to the protection of another country under attack by the Soviets. In this preventative war to defend liberty, Americans expected to first out nuke the Soviet Union and second, dissolve the Soviet Union with popular support.

Fighting The Cold War Myth

            The issue of war between the United States and Soviet Union is often imagined, but not expected. Common perception of US-Soviet relations was that mutually assured destruction (MAD) would prevent an outbreak of war. The idea is that “Any act of nuclear aggression by one party would trigger a retaliation that would destroy both.”[1] Center to the theory of MAD was the creation of nuclear weapons. Previous explosives were capable of a moderate amount of destruction when amassed in large scale. However, the US development of nuclear weapons under the Manhattan Project brought forth a new level of devastation previously unseen in history. The destructive capabilities of the atom were witnessed first hand at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. A new atomic era ushered in the rise of US to superpower status. Unfortunately for the Americans, the Soviets were close behind. Using intelligence from their espionage rings in the US, the Soviets developed their first atomic device and tested it in 1949.[2] With both sides of the Cold War now armed with nuclear weapons the consequences of an all-out war would be disastrous for world.
            The problem with this vision of MAD that raves on about the possible nuclear apocalypse is that it undermines the human will to live. The migration out of Africa has spread humanity to the furthest corners of the globe. From the harsh cold of the Himalayas to the warm tropics of the pacific, humans have adapted to the diverse environments of the world. For thousands of years humanity has coped with natural disasters, famine, disease and war. Despite these difficulties, human beings have persevered and will likely continue to do so in the face of a nuclear war. Looking at the past, there have been many apocalyptic imaginations of an end to humans. A nuclear apocalypse would not be the first time that technology has been hypothesized to cause the end of the civilization.
            Previous declarations of a destructive apocalypse were shown to be false, further illustrating human ingenuity and tenacity. Thomas Malthus determined that humanity would reach its carrying capacity in the near future and be unable to sustain high rates of growth. His theory centered on the idea that the human birth rate would increase faster than food production. As the population grew to unsustainable levels, it would no longer be able to provide adequate sustenance for a majority of society. This lack of basic necessities would in turn cause society to descend into a whirlwind of warfare, disease, and famine. Such Malthusian predictions sprung up again during the 1960s with the incoming food crises in the developing world. Cynics and pessimists waxed on and on about the failures of science to rescue the millions of impoverished beings.[3] Writers like Paul Ehrlich imagined eco-catastrophes that would devastate local life. Turns out that Green Revolution did succeed in providing a greater harvest. In fact, humanity’s population continues to expand to even greater heights, going into the billions.  
            In the realm of warfare, stories of advance technologies wrecking the foundations of civilization are present as well. World War I was critical in displaying both the capabilities of modern armies and of nation states. Trench warfare was terrible and gruesome with army casualties climbing into the hundreds of thousands. Yet the nations of Europe managed to retain some semblance of civilization and continued to pour more troops onto the battlefield. Some economists believed that the world markets had become so interconnected that a war was close to impossible.[4] Even if a war did breakout, they were confident that it had to be short because modern nations could not bear the economic and resource burden for too long. Thus the economists were astounded when the war continued on for four long years sucking up resources at an astonishing rate. Even towards the war’s end as the pillars of nations began to buckle or outright collapse in some countries, civilized societies continued to exist.
            The mutually destructive fears of the World War II, extrapolated from the technologies of World War I, were determined to be false too. Chemical and aerial warfare was thought to bring an apocalyptic horror unlike any other upon the civilian population of both sides. To a certain extent these fears did come true. The German Luftwaffe bombed London during the Blitz. Allied bombings of German cities later in the war wrecked similar havoc on the civilian population.[5] However, the bombings did not bring the imagined end of society and government as depicted in the H.G. Wells inspired movie, Things to Come. Rather the governments of countries involved in World War II persevered, verifying the inaccuracy of the MAD theory.
            It was this faulty MAD theory that was centerpiece of the US minimum deterrence policy. The Encyclopedia of Military Science defines deterrence as “The persuasion of one’s opponents that the costs and/or risks of a given course of action outweigh the benefits”.[6] In the context of the Cold War, nuclear weapons were to serve as a “risk” tool to discourage Soviet aggression. Of course this deterrence worked both ways since the Soviets also had a nuclear arsenal. The resulting political situation was a stalemate where neither side could gain the upper hand over the other. Since the MAD theory had such dangerous consequences, both the US and Soviet Union were discouraged from taking aggressive action. Even simply having these weapons of mass destruction should be sufficient enough to frighten the opposing side into inaction. There was one problem with this “layman” view of minimum deterrence.[7] Nuclear weapons were assumed to be a “menace to mankind” with unlimited destructive capabilities.[8] Instead of focusing on the possible limits of damage, the general public focused on the horror stories. These horror stories in turn, generated a belief that the risks of thermonuclear war are high enough to warrant ignorance on other military postures and plans. However, there are significant flaws in that line of reasoning.
            Deterrence applies only when adequate war preparations have been made. Without the early warning of a nuclear strike, the nation under attack could be damaged before any retaliatory action takes place. Such a scenario disproves the idealistic view of minimum deterrence. An ideal situation is that launching nuclear weapons trigger an automatic retaliatory action. The reality is that the first one to attack will have a significant time advantage. The attacker has the benefit of prior preparation via stockpiling munitions and evacuating cities. They also can concentrate their firepower at discrete targets while the defender has to protect the entire area. Thus, the overwhelming advantage lies on the side initiating nuclear war.

Preparing for War

            Once past the fear mongering horror stories of imminent ruin, logical plans can be studied in detail. There are two major war preparations that would benefit the defender: efficient air defenses and a civil defense program. This need to improved defenses does not contradict the statement of the attacker’s advantage in the previous section. The one initiating thermonuclear war still has the advantage of early preparation. However, effective defenses will make sure to minimize possible damages. Such claims may seem as little value in the face of nuclear weapons where even one bomb is capable of wiping out a city. Even so, defenses do serve a purpose. The previous logic can be flipped around. Preventing even just one plane will help save a city. Civil defense projects will also protect the local population from the hazards following a nuclear attack.
            With the rapid advancement of missiles in the 20th century, improved air defenses can feel pointless. Missiles travel faster than intercepting aircraft making them difficult to shoot down. Active air defenses on the ground likewise have similar problems targeting a projectile going many times faster than the speed of sound. However, there are distinct disadvantages to using Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). Missiles are an expensive investment requiring considerable expertise to maintain and operate. They also cannot be recalled once fired and are more inaccurate compared to conventional bombers. Thus, bombers serve as a cheaper attack method.
            Bombers are not only cheaper, but they are also available in large quantities for use in both nuclear and conventional bombings. Both the US and Soviet Union field large air forces that are likely to play a pivotal role throughout the war. Air defenses are therefore central to repulsing aircraft. Doubtless, air defenses will not be impenetrable. Looking into the past at World War II demonstrates the massive difficulties of defending large targets such as cities. It would be exceedingly optimistic to assume that in the age of missiles and advance aircraft that air defenses would be effective at preventing air attacks. Herman Kahn highlights the general outlook out effective air defense as “an almost hopeless task.”[9]
            Despite their questionable effectiveness, air defenses contribute to the war effort in preventing successful bombing runs. Anti-aircraft artillery fire prevents bombers from flying freely over targets without evasive maneuvers. Complex maneuvers and deception are thus needed and complicate the enemy’s job. Active resistance prevents accurate bombings and forces the enemy to use high performance aircraft. The bombing loads of the enemy aircraft will be reduced for more maneuverability. Thus, while the enemy aircraft are likely to bomb cities, they will do so with less devastation than expected.
            A program of civil defense is the second preparation that benefits the defender. This program comes in the form of nuclear fallout shelters, evacuation, food stockpiles, inventory, and recuperation cadres. Center to the civil defense plan are the shelters. For the nation’s wealth comes from its people. Therefore, the military is also responsible for protecting life because people are not very productive when ill or injured. The construction of these protective infrastructures has to be coordinated into public evacuation measures. With sufficient drilling and practice, towns and small cities can be evacuated quickly. Once within the protective shelters, the population needs sufficient, uncontaminated food supplies. These foodstuffs should be prepared right after the construction of the shelters so as to use untainted agriculture and produce.[10] The food stockpiles will be developed along with inventory for the other necessities of life. Inventories will vary depending on the each regions needs. The last vital aspect of the civil defense program is an organization of work cadres specifically aimed at recuperation and construction. Work cadres serve as onsite recovery tools for repairs of infrastructure and other vital machinery. With all these civil defense measures in place and an active air defense to provide some sort of cover, the estimated casualties can be expected to drop by at least 30 million.[11]
            The problem is that these programs are expensive and cannot be easily pushed forward without considerable backing from the public. There is also the added problem of political support needed behind these massive government-spending operations. A bipartisan split within the government complicates the task of getting a sufficient budget for each part of the program. It is more than likely that certain aspects of the program will be diminished or completely removed to compromise clashing party ideals. Critical to getting unanimous approval is an international crisis with the Soviet Union. Unless there is an active threat present at that moment, the financial support behind such efforts is bound to be limited.

Starting the War

            The expected outbreak of World War III reflects off the bias of Western visions. The primary instigator is expected to be the Soviet Union. However, the first to use nuclear weapons will be the US. This peculiar situation appeases both the victory and morality imaginations of the West. The Soviets get the stain of being the one morally responsible for starting a war resulting in the death of millions, while the Americans get to gloat in their heroic triumph over the evil forces of Communism.
            Soviet aggression comes in the form of physical violence towards nonaligned countries or separatist Eastern bloc countries. In Collier’s “Preview of the War We Do Not Want” the country under Soviet attack is Yugoslavia.[12] This October issue of the magazine depicts Marshal Tito as brave dictator opposing the evil plans of a power hungry Stalin. Of course, the event is presented as one of Soviet subterfuge. Soviet spies slip into Yugoslavia’s capital, Belgrade to assassinate Marshal Tito. The assassins fail, but not before sowing chaos and confusion throughout the country with rumors and a communications blackout. In amidst the chaos, the satellite puppet states of Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Albania invade Yugoslavia. Behind them on the border on the Soviet Union are 15 army divisions at the ready. The plan was that the satellites would be used to capture Yugoslavia, thus portraying the incident as an internal affair. Marshal Tito’s survival foiled the operation right away. Once communications were restored, Tito broadcasted Stalin’s nefarious plot to take Yugoslavia. The West recognizes Yugoslavia’s legitimate fight against the Soviet juggernaut and rallies to its aid with America leading the way. The countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in conjunction with the US all commit openly to opposing Soviet aggression. The other countries of the United Nations (UN) also join in the support of Yugoslavia with the exception of the nonaligned states.
            The chain of events depicted in the magazine has some historical precedent. For one it is rather telling that the Balkans area is once more the source of another World War. The battle between Serbia and Austro-Hungarian Empire was what set off the First World War. Now the battle between Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union is what is envisioned to begin the Third World War. The source of the conflict, Marshal Tito’s disagreement with Joseph Stalin, was also quite well known. As a result of not following the party line towed by the Cominform, Yugoslavia was expelled from the group in 1948.[13] The relations between the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia after the split remained frosty and the threat of outright war was present. It was based on these hostile foreign relations that the writers of the Collier’s visualized the outbreak of the next World War.

World War III – Thermonuclear War

            Once the war against the Soviet Union is formally announced, the US performs a massive nuclear weapons strike. The switch from defense to offense is required to effectively win. While the Soviets have the advantage of numerical superiority, the Americans have the advantage of a superior quality air force and a larger nuclear stockpile. Thus, a quick strike will effectively utilize early American advantages. The Soviets had miscalculated, believing that the Western forces would remain clear of the “internal affair.” The US capitalizes on the early surprise by launching early air attacks on Soviet Union. Missile use is limited because the US can rely more on its fleet of bombers rather than ICBMs.[14]
            The early nuclear strikes are aimed at military targets, not civilian targets. Besides the usual moral reasons as described in Robert E. Sherwood’s “The Third World War,” there is also a cold logic behind targeting military objectives.[15] Herman Kahn classifies this plan to attack military targets only as “straight counterforce.”[16] By striking at the Soviet’s military capabilities, the US can damage and reduce the retaliation force. As a result, the Soviet military response to the US strikes will be significantly diminished. Straight counterforce also has the added benefit of being more “humane.” American leaders can espouse their moral superiority to their citizens by justifying nuclear strikes against dangerous enemy weapons. Sherwood exploits this idea fully in his article when he states, “We were not at war with the Russian people … therefore, as humanly possible, we aimed at strategic targets only.”[17] Another more sinister reason to leave civilian targets untouched is to use them as hostages. Kahn places this factor above the others, as he believes that the hostages are vital to preventing retaliation and gaining political concessions.[18] Obviously such nefarious purposes for avoiding civilian centers do not make for good propaganda. Hostage taking is frowned upon both domestically and on the international stage. Therefore it is likely that media accounts and writers will quickly skim over the real benefits of targeting military installations.
            The success of nuclear strikes raises questions about the Soviet nuclear capabilities. If the Soviets have nuclear weapons of their own, what is to prevent them from using them first? There are a variety of reasons that Soviets avoid using nuclear weapons first in the conflict. One, the “internal affair” of Yugoslavia was to be dealt without utterly ruining the country. Yugoslavia, though opposed to the Stalinist line, was still a socialist country. They were potential allies that had to be “persuaded” to return to the Soviet Union. Two, the Soviets were surprised by the American and Western support of Yugoslavia. Stalin was expecting the invasion of Yugoslavia to be an entirely internal issue that the West would ignore. Marshal Tito was not completely a reliable ally of the West either. He was a supporter of socialist democracy and also responsible for founding the nonaligned movement that sided with neither the Americans nor the Soviets. To begin with, it would seem unlikely for the West to come to aid of Communist country. When the West did come to the aid of Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union was caught unaware. Three, the Soviets genuinely believed in a policy of not striking first with nuclear weapons. After World War II, the Soviets continually stressed the language of peace.[19] Although the authenticity of the Soviet designs for peace remain suspect, there is certainly room for plausibility. World War II, also known as the Great Patriotic War for Russians, caused horrific damage to the Russian economy. Entire populations were displaced. Factory production had to be relocated. The Russian casualties went into the millions. In the wake of such a destructive war, a plea for peace was reasonable. Indeed the Soviet citizens wholeheartedly threw their support behind the 1950 Stockholm Declaration, which called for a universal ban on atomic weapons.[20] The Party line was similar. Yevgeniy N. Kochetkov, first secretary of the USSR Embassy in Washington DC, stated that the “Soviet Union has officially renounced first use of nuclear weapons.”[21]
            Rather than use nuclear weapons the Soviets are more likely to turn to conventional warfare. Here the Soviet armed forces have the numerical superiority on the land and air. Using this force of numbers, Soviets will sweep into Europe like a tidal wave. Another Soviet detachment is expected to aid North Korea in its invasion of South Korea. There will be some pockets of heroic resistance by UN troops. However in the grand scheme of things, the Red Army is expected to win most of early military confrontations. UN forces would be pushed out of Western Germany under incessant attack from the larger Soviet air force. A similar situation occurs with the evacuation of UN forces from Korea to Japan, referred to as “Dunkerque” in the Sherwood’s Colliers’ story.[22] Soviet troops will probably even invade American soil with amphibious landings in Alaska.
            The involvement of conventional armed forces runs counter to Kahn’s imagination of thermonuclear war, but can be predicted to occur considering the size of armed forces of both nations and the emotions of the populations. Kahn imagines a short war lasting from “a few hours to a couple of months at most.”[23] His vision of a thermonuclear conflict is one of limited exchanges and tactical deployment of the nuclear weapons. These short limited engagements are to be ended by political peace arrangements made by both superpowers.[24] The problem is that Kahn approaches the issue of thermonuclear war as a rationalist. He assumes that both the Americans and Soviets are logical players in a war game of annihilation. Once the war production and momentum starts to pickup, the citizens of both superpowers will demand for total victory on behalf of those killed. The governments on both sides of the divide have to justify the war losses and casualties. In an effort not to lose face it is likely that neither superpower will step down. Thus, the war would continue indefinitely with the both sides tossing nukes at each other. Here is where the conventional ground troops come in. To hold land and defeat an enemy, infantry have to perform two acts. They must search for the enemy forces and destroy them. Another objective is to find and destroy the enemy’s main war industries. Even when armed with terrifying nuclear stockpiles, both sides have to disable or remove the opponents’ abilities to produce more. The task is to be left ground troops to permanently destroy war production and prevent recovery attempts. Therefore, the use of conventional forces in conjunction with nuclear strikes is fated to occur.
            The Soviet pledge to not strike first with nuclear weapons did not advert the trauma of thermonuclear warfare. For the vow is broken the moment the Americans strike first using nuclear weapons to bomb Soviet military bases and installations. The Soviets, anticipated in being more bloodthirsty in their military endeavors, target both large civilian populations and strategic targets. Kahn refers to this policy of mixed targets as “counterforce plus countervalue.”[25] It is more than likely that the Soviets will use their missile development advantage to compensate for the poor quality of their aircraft. The missiles are not as accurate, but are more than adequate to target large cities. The ICBMs could be used to target industrial or financially important cities like Detroit and New York. While the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans provided some sort of natural barrier for the US, the new technologies of the Cold War were to diminish their protective encirclement. Soviet bombers from Siberia drop the first nuclear weapon on the US at Hanford, Washington. Hanford was a US production site for nuclear weapons during the development of the atomic bomb under the Manhattan Project.[26]
            Once the battle starts to reach the US mainland, American political issues come in the middle of foray. Politics are generally depicted as a burden or inconvenience to military realities. The American public is described as complacent because of their safe position on another continent far from the war zone. This complacency reflects off the population’s World War II experience where the US mainland was left relatively unscathed. Politicians represented the public’s opinions by not investing enough funds into military expenditure and civil defense. As a result, when the Russian nuclear bombs struck the American public was caught off-guard. The devastation wrought by the nuclear weapons brought in by foreign enemies in the skies above convinced the American public of the need for national and civil defense. New funds were quickly diverted towards shelter infrastructure and evacuation management.
            Now with both sides are using nuclear weapons, the war divulges into a nuclear face off with the Americans using straight counterforce and the Soviets pursuing a policy of counterforce plus countervalue. Soviets will continue their city nukings. The Americans will try to avoid attacking cities in preference for strategic military targets. However with the terror and damages caused by Soviet nuclear weapons, the US military establishment will eventually be forced by public demand to nuke Moscow.[27] The Americans will have the upper hand in this nuclear weapons battle because of their larger nuclear stockpile and their successful early nuclear strike. The early US strikes damaged nuclear weapon production factories preventing the Russians from creating more. Although numerically superior, Soviet forces will over extend themselves and eventually be exhausted after fighting for months on end. Then the anticipated counter attack will begin with UN forces opening up with menacing salvo of explosives.[28] With newfound momentum, the allies will press forward until they reach the Russian border.
            The US strategists pictured a massive campaign of psychological warfare alongside the general counteroffensive. Once the momentum was back on the side of UN forces, aircraft would start to drop leaflets informing the Soviets people of their opposed enslavement at the hands of the Soviet state. Simultaneously, agents and saboteurs would be parachuted into Soviet Union to promote resistance to Russian rule. It was believed that once the populace of Eastern bloc countries were given the opportunity they would overthrow their oppressors.[29] From these domestic uprisings, the countries of Warsaw Pact would break away from the Soviet Union. The chain would continue until the Soviet Union disintegrated. What was left of the country would become the new Russia.
            The US dreams of a Cold War escalation saw Americans play a vital role in defending the liberties of peoples from Soviet tyranny. In this particular case, the US came to the defense of a nonaligned nation. A preemptive strike on Soviet strategic facilities such as military installations and industrial factories crippled the Soviet war effort. Major Russian population centers were avoided for moral and tactical reasons. However, this successful strike would not be enough to hold back the numerically superior Russian forces invading from the East. Soviets retaliated by using their preexisting nuclear arsenal against US cities and military installations. Thermonuclear warfare brought a terrible maelstrom of death and destruction like none other. Americans were able to survive and learn from the initial onslaught. With reenergize conviction, Americans threw their lot into the war effort. Likewise the UN forces counterattacked and pushed back the overextended and exhausted Soviet forces. With the war coming into the countries of the Eastern block and a new concerted UN psychological warfare campaign taking off, the enslaved peoples revolted against their Soviet oppressors. As each country separated from the Soviet Union, the entire Communist edifice disintegrated into multiple pieces. The world was finally rid of Soviet oppression, but the road to recovery was to be long and arduous. America along with its allies would lead the path of recovery for the formation of new democracies and a new Russia.

Bibliography

Clarke, I.F. Voices Prophesying War, 1763-1984. London: Oxford University Press, 1966.
Johnston, Timothy. Oxford Historical Monographs : Being Soviet : Identity, Rumour, and Everyday Life under Stalin 1939-1953. Cary, GB: Oxford University Press, 2011.
Kahn, Herman. On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios. Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1986.
Kahn, Herman. On Thermonuclear War. 2nd ed. New York: Free Press Paperback - The Macmillan Company, 1969.
Kahn, Herman. Thinking About the Unthinkable. Discus Book, DS34. New York: Avon, 1971.
Kochetkov, Yevgeniy N. "The Position of the USSR on Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control." The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 469 (1983): 136.
Lovell, Stephen. The Shadow of War; Russia and the USSR, 1941 to the Present. Chichester, West Sussex, U.K. : Malden, Mass.: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010.
"Marshal Tito." In Encyclopedia of World Biography, 2nd ed., 244-246. Vol. 15. Detroit: Gale, 2004. Gale Virtual Reference Library (accessed December 7, 2016).
Mehta, Coleman "The CIA Confronts the Tito-Stalin Split, 1948–1951," Journal of Cold War Studies 13, no. 1 (2011): 101-45.
Pash, Sidney. "Deterrence." In Encyclopedia of Military Science, edited by G. Kurt Piehler, 473-476. Vol. 2. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Reference, 2013. Gale Virtual Reference Library (accessed November 19, 2016).
Rawson, Michael. “Come the Apocalypse,” PPT.
Rhodes, Richard. The Making of the Atomic Bomb. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1986.
Robert E. Sherwood, Hanson W. Baldwin, Lowell Thomas, Arthur Koestler, Walter Winchell, Allan Nevins, Edward R. Murrow, Hal Boyle, Stuart Chase, J. B. Priestley, Margaret Chase Smith, Senator, Erwin Canham, Philip Wylie, Howard Brodie, Walter Reuther, and Chesley Bonestell. "Preview of the War We Do Not Want: Imaginary Account of Russia's Defeat and Occupation, 1952-60." UNZ.org, October 27, 1951. Accessed October 26, 2016. http://www.unz.org/Pub/Colliers-1951oct27:1?View=Overview.
Sherwood, Robert E. “The Third World War.” Collier’s, October 27, 1951.
Shewmaker, John B., and Tietz, Mary R. Retaliatory Issues for the U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces. Background Paper (United States. Congressional Budget Office). Washington: Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, 1978.
Skilling, H. Gordon (Harold Gordon), 1912-2001.. Interest groups in Soviet politics. Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1973, c1971.
United States. General Accounting Office. Strategic Weapons Nuclear Weapons Targeting Process : Fact Sheet for Congressional Requesters. Washington, D.C. : Gaithersburg, MD (P.O. Box 6015, Gaithersburg 20877): Office ; The Office [distributor, 1991].


[1] "arms race." Oxford Reference. 19 Nov. 2016. http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780195123715.001.0001/acref-9780195123715-e-83.
[2] Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1986)
[3] Michael Rawson, Come the Apocalypse, PPT.
[4] I. F. Clarke, Voices Prophesying War, 1763-1984 (London: Oxford University Press, 1966), 77.
[5] The most infamous Allied bombing of the European war was the firebombing of Dresden.
[6] Sidney Pash, "Deterrence." In Encyclopedia of Military Science, edited by G. Kurt Piehler, 473-476. Vol. 2. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Reference, 2013. Gale Virtual Reference Library (accessed November 19, 2016). http://go.galegroup.com.ez-proxy.brooklyn.cuny.edu:2048/ps/i.do?p=GVRL&sw=w&u=cuny_broo39667&v=2.1&it=r&id=GALE%7CCX3719300158&sid=exlibris&asid=24fe513351cdd09aa7bab58adc010230.
[7] Herman Kahn refers to this idea of minimum deterrence as “the layman’s view.” Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War, 2nd ed. (New York: Free Press Paperback - The Macmillan Company, 1969), 8.
[8] Clarke, 197.
[9] Kahn, On Thermonuclear War, 2nd ed., 101.
[10] Kahn estimates a cost of $25 billion for a three year food supply with rationing methods in place (about $204 billion in today’s currency value). Kahn, On Thermonuclear War, 2nd ed., 517.
[11] Kahn, On Thermonuclear War, 2nd ed., 98.
[12] Robert E. Sherwood, Hanson W. Baldwin, Lowell Thomas, Arthur Koestler, Walter Winchell, Allan Nevins, Edward R. Murrow, Hal Boyle, Stuart Chase, J. B. Priestley, Margaret Chase Smith, Senator, Erwin Canham, Philip Wylie, Howard Brodie, Walter Reuther, and Chesley Bonestell. "Preview of the War We Do Not Want: Imaginary Account of Russia's Defeat and Occupation, 1952-60." UNZ.org, October 27, 1951. Accessed October 26, 2016. http://www.unz.org/Pub/Colliers-1951oct27:1?View=Overview.
[13] Coleman Mehta, "The CIA Confronts the Tito-Stalin Split, 1948–1951," Journal of Cold War Studies 13, no. 1 (2011): 101-45.
[14] Herman Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable, Discus Book, DS34 (New York: Avon, 1971), 62.
[15] Robert E. Sherwood, “The Third World War,” Collier’s, October 27, 1951, 19-31, 68-78.
[16] Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable, 69.
[17] Sherwood, 69.
[18] Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable, 70.
[19] Timothy Johnston, Oxford Historical Monographs : Being Soviet : Identity, Rumour, and Everyday Life under Stalin 1939-1953, (Cary, GB: Oxford University Press, 2011), 141-145.
[20] Stephen Lovell, The Shadow of War ; Russia and the USSR, 1941 to the Present, (Chichester, West Sussex, U.K. : Malden, Mass.: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010), 149-151.
[21] Kochetkov, Yevgeniy N. "The Position of the USSR on Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control." The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 469 (1983): 136.
[22] Sherwood, 29.
[23] Herman Kahn, On Escalation : Metaphors and Scenarios (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1986), 168.
[24] Kahn, On Escalation, 34-36.
[25] Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable, 68-69.
[26] Rhodes, Chapter 2.
[27] Sherwood, 70.
[28] Sherwood imagines UN forces to strike with a barrage of nuclear artillery. Sherwood, 31.
[29] Sherwood, 77-78.

No comments:

Post a Comment