Reading Journal #10: Chabon, McMurtrie, Global Trends 2030, US Views of Tech. and Future, The Onion, Tomorrowland

For the week of “Today’s Tomorrow” there were five readings and one film concerning ideas of a possible future from the view of our present. Michael Chabon describes his hope for the future with the development of the Clock of the Long Now. Beth McMurtrie discusses the use of special computers in analytical predictions for future events. The National Intelligence Council in Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds outlines the future along the lines of megatrends (things certain to happen) and game changers (things that might happen). The Pew Research Center demonstrates the general American optimism about the future in US Views of Technology and the Future: Science in the Next Fifty Years. The Onion pokes fun at the changing social culture in Paris caused by smartphones through a fictional account of a long lost Jules Verne’s story. The movie Tomorrowland is an action packed thriller with an overall message of continued human struggle for a better future.

McMurtrie’s discussion about analytical computers “predicting” our future sounds very ominous. The machine under the jurisdiction of the federal government is a double-edged sword. If the machines ever became accurate enough for specific days or years, would the knowledge place a burden of responsibility on the government? How would the government respond to a possible report about potential food shortages or droughts? Would they withhold the data from the public about possible future suffering? Even more threatening is the new capabilities of the supercomputer.  Supercomputers are capable of performing tasks that only earlier would have to be performed by a group of more than 10 people. As the machines of the present get evermore powerful it is likely that they will replace a vast majority of manual labor and even lower end white-collar jobs.

The prediction machines are already playing a large role in prognostic groups such as the National Intelligence Council. As demonstrated by Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, population censuses, production, GDP information, and other such raw data are being complied together in neat graphs and diagrams for viewing. Pretty soon even the paper reports will start to be created by machines using word document templates. However based on the Pew Research Center’s survey of a small group of 1001 adults, the American population appears to be more interested in travel innovations and health technologies than the computerization of labor. This interest in travel related inventions is to be expected since the future is always illustrated with new forms of movement. Health technologies are another standard expectation with today’s biotech companies making millions of new drugs (and profits) each year. Yet I am disappointed that the power of computers to replace all labor is still not a widespread idea.

Despite the possible apocalypse some will continue to press forward for a better tomorrow. Here Chabon’s ideals that the future should present a positive motivation go along with the theme in the movie, Tomorrowland. The movie proselytizes that instead of focusing on dystopias, people should focus on creating a better future. Even with the poor writing of the movie, the idea that science will solve all continues still rings out amid the darkness of despair.